Analysis of Electric Energy Substitution Potential and Energy Structure in China under Dual Carbon Background

Abstract

The implementation of the "electricity substitution" policy will reshape the current structure of terminal energy consumption in our country, and is a crucial approach to expeditiously achieve the dual-carbon goal. This paper conducts an analysis on the structure of terminal energy consumption in China, as well as the influencing factors of electric energy alternative development. It establishes a multiple regression model for terminal energy consumption and GDP, power investment, urbanization, and carbon emissions. Finally, it carries out a quantitative analysis on the potential amount of electric energy substitution to construct a multi-objective function with maximum substitution potential and minimum construction cost under various constraint conditions. The optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize annual energy consumption in China over the next ten years and calculate the potential for electric energy replacement during that period. This study aims to provide valuable references for government departments and support power grid enterprises in scientifically implementing electric energy replacement and dual-carbon construction.